Scenario Analysis
Using the input parameters, it is possible to come up with various scenario analysis and witness their effect on the Danish transportation system. The model is capable to run and compare (a) the alternative scenarios or (b) change the parameters to see the effect of parameters variation.
a) Alternative scenarios: There are five alternative scenarios defined in the model.
1. Public Ticket Price (PTP): Reduce the public transit ticket price by 10% starting 2018.
2. Increase the Tax of Fuel (ITF): Increase tax on fuel by 20% starting 2018.
3. Investment in Infrastructure (INF): Invest on new infrastructure by 2025
3.1. Constructing a metro in DKW urban areas (e.g. Aarhus, Aalborg and Odense).
3.2. Constructing S-train railway in DKW urban and suburban areas.
3.3. Increases the frequency of public transit by 10%.
4. Increase Registration and Ownership Tax (ROT): Increases the registration tax and ownership tax of fossil fuel dependent vehicle by 20%.
5. Combination of all scenarios (COM): The combination of all above scenarios.
b) Parameters variation: To understand how different factors influence modal shift there are a set of nine parameters which could be changed by the user and run a new experiment.
1. Fuel Price: Acts as a multiplier on the fuel price for all available private car technologies during the period 2010 – 2050.
2. Capital and registration Cost: Acts as a multiplier for the capital and registration costs associated with non-sustainable private car technologies.
3. Ownership Tax: Acts as a multiplier for ownership tax costs associated with non-sustainable private car technologies.
4. Bus intangible Cost: Acts as a multiplier for intangible bus costs, which represent access and egress times and/or travel speed.
5. Train intangible Costs: Acts as a multiplier for intangible train costs, which represent access and egress times and/or travel speed.
6. Metro intangible Cost: Acts as a multiplier for intangible metro costs, which represent access and egress times and/or travel speed.
7. Strain intangible Cost: Acts as a multiplier for intangible s-train costs, which represent access and egress times and/or travel speed.
8. Ticket Price: Acts as a multiplier on the public ticket prices for all available public modes (bus, train, S-train, metro).
9. Infrastructure: The suggested value for this input parameter is 0 or 1. By inserting 1, additional S-train and metro infrastructure is considered in West Denmark urban and suburban regions. By inserting 0, this additional infrastructure is considered not available (as per the current situation).