SDMoS-DK (System Dynamics Modal Shift-Denmark) is a System
Dynamics model that analyzes the modal share in the Danish national inland
passenger transportation system. This simulation provides a
methodology considering a two-dimensional approach of each mode (i.e., travel
time and travel budget) utilized to calculate the probability of each mode
alternative based on multinomial logit and simulated through system dynamics. By changing the parameters of the
modes, their utility is expected to change, leading to the generation of modal
shift. This will allow the
formulation of several
scenarios, which in turn are going to help approach the target set by Denmark
to become fossil-free by year 2050. The model is capable of considering spatial
disaggregation (DKE-DKW/ Urban/Suburban/Rural) and scenario analysis, the
latest being studied within Denmark. The seven modes of transport included in this model
are group into three larger categories:
Private: Including
private cars (since they represent the vast majority of private means of
transportation)
Public: Including
public bus, train, S-train and metro
Non-Motorised: Including
bicycle and walk
In the business as usual scenario, the development of
the new metro line in Copenhagen in 2020 is already included in the model. The
additional scenarios that have been developed include the decrease of the
ticket price of public transit, which leads to a decrease of their associated
tangible costs and an increase in the utility of public modes compared to other
modes. In addition, the increase of the taxation schemes of fuel prices affects
the tangible cost of private mode and decreases the utility of private cars. The investment on public transit
infrastructure and level of service of the existing public fleet may lead to
reduced travel times, which affect the intangible cost of public modes. Finally,
increasing the registration and ownership tax of private cars affects the
tangible cost of private modes and decreases the utility of private cars.
The model
development efforts are done within the Nordic Flagship Project SHIFT (Sustainable Horizons for Transport) financed
by Nordic Energy Research and the COMETS (Co-Management of Energy and Transport Sector)
project financed by the Innovation Fund Denmark. The model is developed by Georgios Nikou and Mohammad Ahanchian.