SDMoS-DK (System Dynamics Modal Shift-Denmark) is a System Dynamics model that analyzes the modal share in the Danish national inland passenger transportation system. This simulation provides a methodology considering a two-dimensional approach of each mode (i.e., travel time and travel budget) utilized to calculate the probability of each mode alternative based on multinomial logit and simulated through system dynamics. By changing the parameters of the modes, their utility is expected to change, leading to the generation of modal shift. This will allow the formulation of several scenarios, which in turn are going to help approach the target set by Denmark to become fossil-free by year 2050. The model is capable of considering spatial disaggregation (DKE-DKW/ Urban/Suburban/Rural) and scenario analysis, the latest being studied within Denmark. The seven modes of transport included in this model are group into three larger categories:

Private: Including private cars (since they represent the vast majority of private means of transportation)

Public: Including public bus, train, S-train and metro

Non-Motorised: Including bicycle and walk

In the business as usual scenario, the development of the new metro line in Copenhagen in 2020 is already included in the model. The additional scenarios that have been developed include the decrease of the ticket price of public transit, which leads to a decrease of their associated tangible costs and an increase in the utility of public modes compared to other modes. In addition, the increase of the taxation schemes of fuel prices affects the tangible cost of private mode and decreases the utility of private cars. The investment on public transit infrastructure and level of service of the existing public fleet may lead to reduced travel times, which affect the intangible cost of public modes. Finally, increasing the registration and ownership tax of private cars affects the tangible cost of private modes and decreases the utility of private cars.

The model development efforts are done within the Nordic Flagship Project SHIFT (Sustainable Horizons for Transport) financed by Nordic Energy Research and the COMETS (Co-Management of Energy and Transport Sector) project financed by the Innovation Fund Denmark. The model is developed by Georgios Nikou and Mohammad Ahanchian.