Using the input parameters,
it is possible to come up with various scenario analysis and witness their
effect on the Danish inland transportation system. The model is capable to
change the parameters to see the effect of parameters variation and to run and
compare the alternative scenarios. A scenario analysis allows us
to understand which factors affect the decisions on travel mode choice and how
to improve network performance.
Alternative scenarios:
There are four alternative
scenarios defined in the model.
1. Expansion of Infrastructure (EIN): In EIN, we analyze the effect of
developing metros in the DKW urban areas (i.e., Aarhus, Aalborg and Odense).
S-Train railways would also be available in DKW urban and suburban areas by
2025, and the frequency of all trains and buses is increased by 10% with
respect to BAU. Based on the timetable of public modes, some modes are not
available in some areas during nighttime. In EIN, however, there is public
transport available every two hours.
2. Incentives for Sustainable Modes (ISM): ISM
examines the impact of decreasing public transport ticket price by 20% in 2025.
Additionally, free parking is available for Train and S-train, thus eliminating
the access and egress time to public transport. The access and egress stage
(parking a private car) is added to the primary mode of the trip. Finally, in
ISM, all bicycles are electric with free recharging of the battery, thereby
extending the maximum trip length to 55 km.
3. Disincentives for Private Cars (DPC): DPC
examines increasing the fuel tax by 50%; increasing registration and annual
ownership tax of a fossil fuel dependent vehicle by 50%; doubling the parking
cost, and collecting toll on vehicles coming into Copenhagen (30 DKK per trip
irrespective of trip length during weekdays from 6 am to 6 pm).
4. Combination of all scenarios (COM): Alternative scenarios act independent
of other scenarios while integrating policy instruments achieve greater
performance from the overall strategy. In this policy, the combination of EIN,
ISM, and DPC scenarios are integrated together.
Parameters variation: To
understand how different factors influence modal shift there are a set of
parameters which could be changed by the user and run a new experiment.
1.
Construction
of Metro in DKW, Urban area (EIN scenario): Acts as a
Boolean operator (True/False). True means that metro is available in DKW urban
area with the same characteristics of current metro line in Copenhagen while
False means that metro is not available in the region.
2.
Construction
of sTrain railways in DKW, Urban and Suburban area (EIN scenario): Acts
as a Boolean operator (True/False). True means that sTrain is available in DKW
urban and suburban area with the same characteristics of current sTrain line in
DKE while False means that sTrain is not available in the region.
3.
Increase
the frequency of public transit by 10% (EIN scenario): Acts
as a Boolean operator (True/False). True means that the timetable of all public
modes will improve by 10% while False means that the public modes have the same
timetable as it is in business as usual (BAU).
4.
Ticket
decrease in percentage (ISM scenario): Decreases
the ticket price for all public modes by percentage. E.g., -100% means free
public transit while 100% means double ticket price.
5.
Park
and ride (ISM scenario): Acts
as a Boolean operator (True/False). True means that there would be park and
ride facilities for private cars near train and sTrain stations while False
means no park and ride facilities as it is in BAU.
6.
Free
charging for electric bikes (ISM scenario): Acts as a
Boolean operator (True/False). True means that everybody has an electric bike
and the charging is free while False means BAU.
7.
Fuel
tax in percentage (DPC scenario): Increases the tax of fuel for
private cars. E.g., -100% means no tax on fuel while 400% means quadruple tax
on fuels.
8.
Registration
and ownership tax in percentage (DPC scenario): Increases
the registration and ownership tax of fossil-fueled private cars. E.g., -100%
means no registration and ownership tax while 400% means quadruple registration
and ownership tax.
9.
Parking
cost in percentage (DPC scenario): Increases the
parking cost. E.g., -100% means no parking cost while 400% means quadruple
parking cost.
10.
Toll
for private cars in Copenhagen in DKK (DPC scenario): Adds
this cost for vehicles coming to Copenhagen. E.g., 100 DKK means to collect 100
DKK from each car while 0 means no toll collection as it is in BAU.